⛳ Sleeper Picks: 2025 WM Phoenix Open
While the big names dominate the odds board, underdogs often rise to the occasion at TPC Scottsdale. Who could surprise fans and deliver a deep run this week? Here are the best sleeper picks with strong value at the WM Phoenix Open.
🔥 Outright Winner Pick
🏌️ Kurt Kitayama (+7000)
- T8 here last year & two Top 10s to close out 2024.
- Ranks 13th in SG: Off-the-Tee—a crucial stat when wayward shots can end in water or cactus.
- Meets key historical trends: Last 9 winners had a previous Top 10 at TPC Scottsdale, and last 14 winners had at least one Top 10 in their previous five TOUR starts.
💰 Betting Tip: Kitayama is a solid play for Top 5, Top 10, Top 20, Top 30, Top 40, or Make Cut markets.
🥇 Top 5 Finish Pick
🏌️ Andrew Novak (+1100)
- T8 last year at TPC Scottsdale, T2 through 36 holes after an electric 65-65 start.
- T13 at Pebble Beach last week, following a 3rd-place finish at Torrey Pines.
- Trending upwards and proving he can compete with the best.
🏅 Top 10 Finish Pick
🏌️ Billy Horschel (+450)
- T9 at Pebble Beach last week, T21 at The American Express before that.
- Loves the big stage—has made 10 straight cuts at the WM Phoenix Open, with two Top 10s in his last five.
- Thrives in high-energy environments—TPC Scottsdale is the perfect place for his showman style.
🎯 Top 20 Finish Pick
🏌️ Frankie Capan III (+450)
- Phoenix local & two-time state high school champion (2017, 2018).
- Sponsor exemption entry—will have massive local support.
- Strong form as a PGA TOUR rookie: Made all three cuts this season, including T12 at The American Express.
- Won on the Korn Ferry Tour last year to earn his PGA TOUR card.
🔍 Top 40 Finish Pick
🏌️ Matt McCarty (+180)
- Scottsdale resident who plays & practices at TPC Scottsdale.
- Won three times on the Korn Ferry Tour last year before winning the Black Desert Championship on the PGA TOUR.
- 2025 form has been rough (4 missed cuts, T53, T65), but home course advantage could spark a revival.
- Has attended this event since age 10—this week is a dream come true.
🎲 Betting Insights & Viewing Tips
- The PGA TOUR, ESPN+, and ESPN Bet are launching a new live betting stream during all four rounds at TPC Scottsdale.
- Look for odds movement throughout the week based on weather, form, and crowd energy.
- Momentum matters—players who get hot early tend to feed off the crowd and carry it through the weekend.
Who’s ready to wake up a sleeper pick and cash in on some value this week? ⛳🔥
