The PGA TOUR has embarked on a new schedule transition, introducing the FedExCup Fall, which kicks off at the Fortinet Championship in Napa, California. This revamped fall schedule comprises seven events, culminating with The RSM Classic in mid-November. While the format change brings excitement, it also raises intriguing questions for bettors. Here's what to keep an eye on from a betting perspective this fall.
Increased Participation of Prominent Players: The new format allows only the top 50 in the FedExCup standings through the BMW Championship to gain entry into the 2024 Signature Events. Consequently, we might see more high-profile players competing in the fall to secure their spots. Justin Thomas, who missed the top-50 cut, is in the field for the Fortinet Championship, his first September appearance since 2019. The influx of such big names could influence the odds significantly. Max Homa leads the betting charts at +750 via BetMGM Sportsbook, with Thomas closely following at +1400. No other golfer is priced lower than +1800 this week, potentially offering enticing payouts.
Player Participation Across Fall Events: Notably, players like Adam Scott, Shane Lowry, and Billy Horschel currently find themselves outside the 2024 Signature Events list. If more notable players decide to enter particular fall tournaments, it could lead to unique odds markets and alter outright pricing dynamics.
Emergence of New Superstars: The fall schedule has served as a launching pad for emerging talents, exemplified by Max Homa's trajectory to stardom. Homa's 2021 Fortinet Championship win had pre-tournament odds of +5000, but his victory catapulted him into the limelight. Subsequently, he clinched the Wells Fargo Championship, and when he returned to Napa in 2022, he defended his title with odds reduced to +1400. At +750 this week, Homa's rise is a testament to the potential career-changing experiences the fall schedule can offer. Bettors should be on the lookout for rising stars who could become valuable picks before they hit their stride. Players like Mackenzie Hughes (+7000), Akshay Bhatia (+5000), or Nico Echavarria (+30000) all represent intriguing value options.
Longshot Picks Consideration: The fall season presents appealing longshot betting opportunities. For instance, in the Fortinet Championship this week, excluding Max Homa's +1400 victory last year, seven of the past eight winners had odds of +5000 or worse. Similarly, many winners from the 2022 fall lineup were considered longshots. Mackenzie Hughes won the Sanderson Farms Championship at +13000, Russell Henley triumphed at +6000, and Adam Svensson emerged victorious at +9000 during The RSM Classic. While these numbers may seem enticing, it's crucial to remember that historically, fall events have exhibited similar longshot success rates as the rest of the season. Rory McIlroy, Max Homa, Tony Finau, Tom Kim, Seamus Power, and Keegan Bradley all won with odds that were not excessively long. Therefore, when pursuing high-risk, high-reward picks, judicious selection is paramount.
In conclusion, the FedExCup Fall format brings fresh betting prospects for golf enthusiasts. The potential influx of prominent players, the emergence of new stars, and the allure of longshot picks make the fall schedule an exciting period for golf betting. However, responsible gaming remains crucial, especially during Responsible Gaming Education Month in September. Set a budget and gamble within your means. For more information, visit haveagameplan.org/pgatour.