Draws & Fades: Look to long-hitting Cameron Champ in Mexico

In the Mexico Open at Vidanta, Erik van Rooyen has surged to the top of the leaderboard after a stellar 8-under 63 in the opening round, with Cameron Champ not far behind. Let's delve into some players to watch and some to potentially avoid heading into Round 2:

Draws:

  1. Cameron Champ (+1800): Despite a closing bogey, Champ's long-hitting prowess and past successes make him a compelling choice. His strong closing percentage when in contention adds to his appeal, making him a buy opportunity for those looking for high-variance potential.

  2. Andrew Novak (+4500): Novak's solid iron play and ability to stay in contention, despite some struggles off the tee, make him an intriguing option. With a taste for the limelight from his recent T8 finish at the WM Phoenix Open, he could capitalize on his accurate approaches and surprise the field.

Fades:

  1. Erik van Rooyen (+425): While van Rooyen is the current leader, his odds have shortened too much after just one round. With several players within striking distance, including 13 within three shots of his lead, there's too much uncertainty to justify his fraction of the pre-tournament price.

  2. Patrick Rodgers (+1600): Despite solid ball-striking numbers, Rodgers' lack of a breakthrough win on the PGA TOUR and numerous near-misses make him a risky bet at his current price. Trading at one-third the price of more established players without the track record to back it up, Rodgers may not offer sufficient value in the outright market.

These insights provide a balanced view of the players to consider and those to approach with caution as the tournament progresses.