golf · golfer · golffuny · golfgirl · golflife · golfsiwng ·Jul 24, 2023

Going for the green: Forecasting futures markets for the 2024 majors

The anticipation for the 2024 major season in golf is building, with Augusta National's Masters Tournament kicking off the action in 262 days. While oddsmakers are already framing markets for all four of the upcoming year's major championships, bettors face intriguing strategy choices within the futures markets.

On one hand, some bettors may question the feasibility of predicting players' performance six months in advance. Golf form can be fleeting, and even the best players experience slumps and injuries. On the other hand, there's a more aggressive approach that involves taking advantage of early odds and potential value picks.

Looking back at the 2023 majors, there was a noticeable pattern. In three out of four majors, the opening odds for the eventual winner were better than the odds on the eve of the tournament. This means that those who took the risk and bet on the players early enjoyed a greater return. For instance, Jon Rahm's odds to win the Masters improved from +1200 to +900, resulting in a significant difference in potential winnings.

With that in mind, let's explore the odds for the 2024 Masters, scheduled for April 11-14, as provided by BetMGM:

+750: Jon Rahm +900: Scottie Scheffler +1000: Rory McIlroy +1200: Brooks Koepka +1400: Jordan Spieth +1800: Patrick Cantlay +2000: Xander Schauffele, Collin Morikawa, Justin Thomas +2500: Viktor Hovland, Cameron Young, Tony Finau, Dustin Johnson +2800: Cameron Smith +3300: Max Homa, Hideki Matsuyama, Jason Day +4000: Will Zalatoris, Matt Fitzpatrick, Sungjae Im, Rickie Fowler

From this list, two names stand out as potential value picks: Australians Cameron Smith and Jason Day. Both have proven track records at Augusta National and a strong desire to secure the green jacket. Day's current form, combined with his history of performing well early in the season, makes him an intriguing prospect for the FedExCup and potentially an attractive bet for the Masters. Meanwhile, Smith's short game prowess and past successes at the Masters make him an appealing candidate to watch.

Conversely, caution should be exercised when considering Justin Thomas (+2000). Currently experiencing a slump, Thomas might eventually bounce back, but his odds would need to improve significantly to be worth the risk.

Moving on to the 2024 PGA Championship, set for Valhalla in Kentucky from May 16-19, the odds are as follows:

+750: Scottie Scheffler +800: Jon Rahm +1100: Rory McIlroy +1200: Brooks Koepka +1800: Patrick Cantlay +2000: Viktor Hovland, Xander Schauffele +2500: Collin Morikawa, Cameron Smith, Justin Thomas +2800: Dustin Johnson, Tony Finau +3300: Jordan Spieth, Matt Fitzpatrick, Max Homa +4000: Cameron Young, Jason Day, Sungjae Im, Rickie Fowler, Tyrrell Hatton, Tommy Fleetwood

Notably, Rahm and Scheffler have switched favoritism from the Masters, and better odds can be found for McIlroy. Considering McIlroy's history at Valhalla, where he won the last PGA Championship in 2014, +1100 might be a favorable option if you believe he can break his major drought.

The 2014 leaderboard at Valhalla featured Henrik Stenson, Jim Furyk, and Ernie Els, ball-strikers who kept the ball in play during a challenging week. Collin Morikawa, a former champion of the event, might be a suitable pick for the ball-striking mold.

Next up is the U.S. Open, which heads to Pinehurst Resort from June 13-16. The odds are as follows:

Pinehurst Resort previously hosted the 2014 U.S. Open, where Martin Kaymer claimed a dominant victory at +4000 odds. Fowler and Compton tied for second, with Fowler boasting +6000 odds. The U.S. Open could offer opportunities for longshots, and Jason Day at +4000 or Tom Kim at +5000 might be worth considering.

Lastly, the 2024 Open Championship will be held at Royal Troon from July 18-21. The odds are as follows:

+800: Rory McIlroy +900: Scottie Scheffler, Jon Rahm +1800: Cameron Smith +2000: Viktor Hovland, Brooks Koepka +2200: Tommy Fleetwood +2500: Xander Schauffele, Tyrrell Hatton, Patrick Cantlay, Jordan Spieth +2800: Shane Lowry, Rickie Fowler, Collin Morikawa +3500: Matt Fitzpatrick, Justin Thomas, Dustin Johnson +4000: Tom Kim, Max Homa, Cameron Young, Jason Day, Will Zalatoris

McIlroy is the favorite for the Open Championship, and bettors might question whether the odds for Rahm or Scheffler represent value. Given the uncertainties over a year, it might be prudent to avoid taking a risk for minimal reward.

In conclusion, predicting futures markets for the 2024 majors involves considering the players' current form, past performances, and potential value in the odds. While there may be some opportunities for longshot picks, bettors must be cautious in selecting early favorites, as a lot can change in 12 months. Ultimately, the thrill of golf betting lies in embracing the uncertainty and enjoying the action as it unfolds on the green.

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