Horses for Courses: Justin Thomas chases third title at The Sentry

The article provides a comprehensive overview of The Sentry, the PGA TOUR's first event of 2025 at the Plantation Course at Kapalua. Here’s a summary and key points:

Event Overview

  • Course: Plantation Course, Kapalua, Maui – a par-73 layout, 7,596 yards.
  • Event Features:
    • Four par-5s and three par-3s.
    • Wide fairways (58 yards average) and large greens (9,000 sq. ft. average).
    • Friendly scoring conditions, with an average winning score of 28.7 under par over the last four years.
    • No-cut event featuring 60 players.

Defending Champion

  • Chris Kirk: Returns as defending champion after a 29-under victory in 2024. His record-breaking win included 30 birdies and only one bogey.

Key Stats for Success

  1. Putting: Birdie-or-Better Conversion Percentage
    Players in the top ranks include Sam Burns (1st), Wyndham Clark (2nd), and Harry Hall (4th). A hot putter is critical for contention.

  2. Bogey Avoidance
    Xander Schauffele (1st) leads in minimizing bogeys. The course's generous fairways and greens mitigate errors, but elevation changes and wind can still challenge players.

  3. SG: Tee to Green
    Xander Schauffele (2nd), Hideki Matsuyama (3rd), and Justin Thomas (5th) excel in this category, essential for navigating Kapalua’s layout.

Top Contenders

  • Justin Thomas (+900): Two-time winner (2017, 2020) with multiple top finishes. His experience makes him a strong candidate for a third title.
  • Xander Schauffele (+550): Past champion with consistent form at Kapalua. A favorite due to his adaptability and putting skills.
  • Collin Morikawa (+1000): Despite a near-miss in 2023, he remains a strong contender with five consecutive top-10 finishes.

Oddsmaker’s Extras

  • Sungjae Im (+1800): Strong performances with top-eight finishes in three of his last four starts. Known for fast starts and low rounds.
  • Brian Harman (+5500): Reliable at Kapalua, boasting top-5 finishes in past editions.
  • Max Homa (+6500): Consistent scoring with six straight rounds in the 60s at the course.
  • Jason Day (+5000): A seasoned player with top-10 finishes and expertise on Kapalua’s generous greens.
  • Matt Fitzpatrick (+6500): Consistent and improving, with top-15 finishes in his first two starts.

Field Highlights

The no-cut format allows the field of 60 to showcase their skills over four rounds. Experience at Kapalua often plays a significant role, as evidenced by historical winners.

Conclusion

The Sentry promises an exciting start to the 2025 PGA TOUR season. With ideal conditions for scoring and a competitive field, the tournament is poised to deliver thrilling performances and potential record-breaking scores.