How Tough Will Oakmont Get? U.S. Open 2025 Scoring Predictions and Betting Insights

Oakmont Country Club is back in the spotlight, and that can only mean one thing: brutality is on the menu. As the 125th U.S. Open tees off, fans and bettors alike are preparing for a fierce test of precision, patience, and perseverance.

Known for its lightning-fast greens, thick rough, and legendary “church pew” bunkers, Oakmont isn’t just another major venue—it’s the measuring stick for the toughest challenge in golf. USGA CEO Mike Whan put it bluntly: “We believe in the words ‘golf’s toughest test.’” So, what does that mean for scoring, betting lines, and fantasy strategy? Let’s break it down.

Winning Score Props: Expect the Pain

DraftKings has set the winning score line at 278.5 (2-under on a par-70 course). That means:

• Under 278.5 (-125): You’re betting someone finishes 2-under or better.

• Over 278.5 (-105): You expect the winner at 1-under or worse.

Looking at history:

• 2016: Dustin Johnson won at 4-under (score of 276).

• 1994: 5-under was the playoff number, but Oakmont played as a par-71 (score of 279).

• 2007: Ángel Cabrera won at 5-over—pure carnage.

With early-week rain softening conditions and more rain forecasted, the setup should resemble 2016 more than the dry and fiery 2007 version. Smart bet? Take the under at -125—at least one player should finish in red numbers.

Cut Line Chaos: Only 60 Will Survive

Only the top 60 and ties make it to the weekend, making the U.S. Open the hardest cut line on Tour. In past Oakmont editions:

• 2016: Cut was 6-over

• 2007: A brutal 10-over

• 1994: Equivalent to 8-over on par-70

DraftKings’ odds for the 36-hole cut line are:

• +130: 8-over

• +170: 7-over

• +475: 9-over or worse

• +800: 6-over or better

While 8-over is the favorite, the +800 odds on 6-over or better are tempting, especially with softened greens helping tee shots hold the fairways. Don’t be shocked if scoring edges slightly lower than expected.

Prop Bets: Birdies, Eagles & the Long Game

In 2016, players managed:

• 1,042 birdies

• 19 eagles

But in 2007?

• Just 267 birdies

• A shocking 2 eagles

Prop lines for 2025:

• Birdies: 850.5 to 1100.5, with odds climbing into plus territory as you go higher.

• Eagles: Over 12.5 (-125) looks like the sweet spot, especially since the short par-4 17th alone yielded 6 eagles in 2016.

The smart play? Bet the over on 12.5 eagles. The setup may be punishing, but players today are longer, smarter, and better prepared.

Final Word

If you’re a golf fan who lives for intensity, Oakmont will deliver in spades. Whether you’re betting on scoring, building a DFS lineup, or just watching with your heart rate spiking, expect golf at its most unforgiving. The margins are razor-thin, and every shot will matter.

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